Published Date 4/5/2017
ADP at 8:15 AM EST this morning; another huge increase against forecasts, +263K (170K expected). ADP said its count was an increase of 263K in March, Feb revised lower from 298K to 245K -53K. The initial market reaction was a little selling in treasuries and MBSs but not what you would suspect; at 8:45 FNMA 3.5 coupon -5 bp, the 10 yr at 8:45 up just 1 bp to 2.37%. Friday, of course, is the BLS March employment data. ADP data has been a little better than BLS numbers in Jan and Feb (ADP +11K better in Jan, ADP +18K better than BLS). A couple of highlights in ADP data construction jobs and manufacturing jobs: construction industry 49,000 jobs, manufacturing sector added 30,000 positions. Professional and business sectors added 57,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality added 55,000. Prior to this data, the forecasts for non-farm private jobs from BLS on Friday were an increase of 170K, now that will be revised higher in market thinking.